New Research Report

The Credibility of Collective Defence Commitments in NATO in the Early Stages of Trump’s Second Term

This report presents findings from an follow-up study within the European Research Council (ERC) project Microfoundations of Collective Defence (MICROCODE). It examines public perceptions of NATO’s collective defense credibility during the early months of Donald Trump’s second presidential term.

Through surveys conducted in the U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, Poland, and Russia, the study explores how recent geopolitical developments—such as Trump’s rhetoric, the suspension of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, and a rapprochement with Russia—have influenced public support for NATO defense commitments. The findings provide timely insights into the evolving public trust in NATO’s collective defense guarantees.

Read the full research report here.